辽宁避暑旅游气候适宜度评价     

侯亚红  息涛  明惠青  赵淼  关健华 《气象科技》2021,49(6):960-967

利用辽宁省59个国家气象站2008—2017年6—8月逐时地面观测资料，综合考虑夏季气候舒适度和高影响天气对避暑旅游的不利影响，确定辽宁避暑旅游气候适宜度评价方法，分析了辽宁避暑旅游适宜度时空分布，为公众及旅游相关部门了解当地避暑旅游气候资源提供参考。研究表明：①辽宁避暑旅游适宜度由西北到东南逐渐增强， 59个地市（县）中，很适宜避暑的有14个，适宜避暑的有22个，较适宜避暑的有16个。②夏季辽宁大部避暑旅游气候舒适度较好，辽东和辽南气候舒适度优于辽宁中部和西部。辽宁东部的本溪和沿海的丹东、大连、葫芦岛和锦州南部气候舒适度等级最高，避暑气候条件更好。③辽宁夏季暴雨高风险区在东南部的宽甸、丹东和凤城一带。高温高风险区在朝阳大部和锦州西部。大风高风险区在铁岭北部、彰武、锦州、营口和长海。雷暴高风险区在铁岭、抚顺东部、朝阳西部和庄河一带。④6月、8月是辽宁适合避暑旅游的月份，尤其是 6月，避暑旅游适宜度最高，适宜面积最大。8月份次之， 7月避暑旅游适宜度较差。  相似文献   

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析     

高安生  陈红玉  黄玮 《云南地理环境研究》2006,18(3):34-39,57

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.  相似文献   

Palaeovariations in the East-Asian Monsoon Regime Geochemically Recorded in Varved Sediments of Lake Sihailongwan (Northeast China, Jilin Province). Part 2: a 200-Year Record of Atmospheric Lead-210 Flux Variations and its Palaeoclimatic Implications     

Georg Schettler  Jens Mingram  Jörg F. W. Negendank  Liu Jiaqi 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(2):271-288

Palaeovariations of the atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb flux in Northeast China (Long Gang area, Jilin province), quantified by high resolution ²¹⁰Pb measurements on seasonally laminated sediments of Lake Sihailongwan are presented on decadal scale. The mean flux of unsupported ²¹⁰Pb between 1790 and 1970 for the centre of the lake basin is 517 Bq m⁻² yr⁻¹ with maximum deviations between −23% and +27% of this value. Flux rates above this average were found between 1783 and 1813, around 1836, and between 1860 and 1901. The mean ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux rates derived were clearly lower around 1821, 1908, 1930, and 1953. The ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux reached its minimum of 344 Bq m⁻² yr⁻¹ during the period 1977–1982. The atmospheric flux of unsupported ²¹⁰Pb is correlated with the precipitation frequency during the summer monsoon and shows coinciding variability with geochemical proxies that document the groundwater inflow into the lake. Al₂O₃-rich dust of remote provenance scavenged by wet-deposition in the rainy season is the major carrier of the atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux.  相似文献   

Palaeovariations in the East-Asian Monsoon Regime Geochemically Recorded in Varved Sediments of Lake Sihailongwan (Northeast China, Jilin Province). Part 1: Hydrological Conditions and Dust Flux   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Georg Schettler  Qiang Liu  Jens Mingram  Jörg F. W. Negendank 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(2):239-270

The varved sediments of the dimictic Lake Sihailongwan (Long Gang mountain area, Jilin Province, Northeast China) represent a palaeoclimatic archive which documents the local precipitation frequency during the summer monsoon, and variations in the aeolian flux of dust with their remote sources in the arid and semi-arid regions of inner Asia. Based on a detailed discussion of sediment genesis in Lake SHL, dust flux rates and palaeohydrological conditions were reconstructed on a decadal scale over the past 220 years. The aeolian influx by dry and wet deposition was quantified and characterised in its chemical composition. Photosynthetic production in the lake is positively correlated with the inflow of nutrient-rich groundwater. The groundwater discharge largely reflects the strength of the summer monsoon. Net accumulation rates for biogenic silica were determined for annually laminated sediments from the centre of the U-shaped lake basin based on sediment data. In a Si-balance model of the modern lake, the depositional flux of biogenic silica could be independently quantified on the base of hydrochemical monitoring data. Comparison of the both estimates allowed to asses the focussing of the particle flux in the lake. Though water retention in Lake SHL is rather high (ca. 30 years), changes in the hydrological conditions are sensitively recorded in the sediments because (i) nutrient-rich groundwater discharges into the productive zone of the lake, (ii) a substantial proportion of the total dissolved Si-inventory of the mixed lake (ca. 30%) is annually consumed by diatom growth, and (3) sediment accumulation is substantially focussed towards the flat bottom of the lake basin. The bulk siliciclastic sediment fraction (ca. 75 wt.%) largely originates from influx of dust of remote provenance. In sediment thin-sections, the dry-deposited dust fraction is microscopically identifiable as seasonal silt layer. Aeolian input by wet-deposition shows a distinctly higher variability than the influx of dust by dry-deposition. As diatom production, wet-deposition of dust is positively correlated with the rainfall during the summer monsoon. The inferred positive correlation between rainfall and dust flux during the summer monsoon implies that dust deposition is determined by the out-wash efficiency of mineral particles for a permanent high atmospheric dust concentration over Northeast China in the last 220 years.  相似文献   

早涝碱咸综合治理与生态环境良性循环     

方生陈秀玲  范振铎万宝林 《地下水》2005,27(1):1-5,9

华北平原东部淡水资源短缺，旱涝碱成灾害限制了农业生产的可持续发展。海河的治理，解决了排洪排涝排咸出路。春季开发利用地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉。夏季利用伏雨洗盐排咸，增大降雨入渗，减少径流流失，防治渍涝灾害，把降雨转化为地下水资源。秋冬引蓄河水，回灌地下水补源。以土壤与潜水的地层空间作为调节大气降水、土壤水、地下水、地表水的地下水库，以调控地下水埋深在临界动态为指标，最大限度地把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为可持续利用的水资源。地表水地下水联合运用，促使水资源采补平衡，降雨灌溉淋洗脱盐强于干旱蒸发积盐过程，地下水淡化强于矿化过程。实现旱涝碱咸综合治理，水土资源可持续利用，经济社会可持续发展，生态环境良性循环。  相似文献   

自适应网格技术在MM5中的应用研究     

李红莉  沈桐立 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(1):44-50

结合一次暴雨过程，将自适应网格技术应用于中尺度模式MM5中进行数值试验，同时对比自适应网格方案和固定网格方案的优劣，对模拟结果作了诊断分析。结果表明：对于此次降水过程，自适应网格模拟的效果取决于一些参数的选择。  相似文献   

华南前汛期不同降水时段的特征分析   总被引：41，自引：5，他引：41  

池艳珍  何金海  吴志伟 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(2):163-171

利用1957-2001年华南地区74个测站逐日降水资料和同期NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析格点资料，对华南前汛期(4-6月)不同降水时段的特征进行了比较。分析发现，华南前汛期降水由锋面降水和夏季风降水两个时段组成。锋面降水时段主要集中在4月，为典型的由冬到夏过渡的环流形势，华南地区高空为平直的副热带西风急流，大气层结稳定，水汽来源主要是阿拉伯海的西风输送和西太平洋副高南侧东风的转向输送；南海夏季风爆发前，副高仍控制南海地区，华南地区水汽输送主要来源于阿拉伯海的西风输送和西太平洋副高南侧东风的转向输送及孟加拉湾的西南输送；南海夏季风爆发后，副高东撤退出南海地区，南半球越赤道水汽输送加强并与孟加拉湾水汽输送连通，华南区域内对流发展；夏季风降水时段盛期主要集中在6月，此时南亚高压跃上高原，华南地区处于南亚高压东部，对流发展极其旺盛，强大的南半球越赤道水汽输送越过孟加拉湾和南海地区向华南地区输送。  相似文献   

春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

王艳玲  郭品文 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(3):391-397

利用1948-2002年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐日海平面气压资料以及中国160站的降水和气温资料，分析了春季北方气旋活动频数和强度的时空变化特征，以及两者与中国降水和气温的相关关系。结果表明：春季北方气旋活动频繁，存在明显的两个高值中心，分别位于蒙古国的中部和我国东北北部地区。春季北方气旋活动频数和强度均存在明显的年际和年代际变化。伴随着一次全球性的年代际气候跃变，20世纪70年代中后期无论是频数还是强度均出现了显著的突变。春季北方气旋活动频数主要对我国北方地区的降水和气温有一定影响，活动频数多(少)年，我国华北大部、新疆北部降水偏少(多)；北疆地区气温回升(下降)，甘、宁、陕、内部分地区偏冷(暖)。80-90年代春季北方气旋活动频数的偏少，强度的减弱，导致我国北方地区沙尘暴次数比70年代减少.  相似文献   

东北夏季(6-8月)气温异常的时空特征分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李兰  王盘兴  陈长胜  李丽平 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(6):801-807

利用夏季（6—8月）中国东北地区91站44a气温资料，采用谐波分析方法将该区夏季气温异常变化的年代际、年际尺度分量分离，研究时空特征，然后应用REOF进行气温异常的区划，研究局域异常变化的年代际、年际分量的变化特征。结果发现：1）东北各站夏季异常方差中，东北大部分地区的气温异常的年代际变化分量均明显大于年际变化分量。2）区域气温异常的年代际变化主要特征为线性上升趋势。大范围夏季异常高温（低温）常出现在年代际、年际异常同时为正（负）的年份。3）气温异常可划分为南部型、北部型、东部型、西部型4个型，其中南部型和西部型的年代际变化相对重要，而东部型和北部型的年际变化相对重要。  相似文献